IMF Projects Sub-Saharan African Economy to Grow Faster than Asia's for the First Time

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow faster than Asia for the first time in modern history, positioning the region as the world’s fastest-growing major economic bloc. The International Monetary Fund projects African economies will expand by about 4.4% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, while Asia’s growth slows to roughly 4.1% as China’s structural deceleration weighs on the region.

In a global economy growing closer to 3.3%, Africa’s outperformance stands out—and 11 of the world’s 15 fastest-growing economies this year are expected to be African.

This acceleration reflects a confluence of supportive macro forces. Elevated prices for gold and copper, easing inflation, a weaker U.S. dollar, and declining debt-service pressures are stabilizing external balances and improving fiscal space, supporting domestic demand and investment even as many regions face tighter financial conditions.

The IMF’s outlook is reinforced by strong performance across reform-oriented and diversified economies. Countries such as Ivory Coast, Senegal, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Uganda are sustaining 6–7% growth, in some cases despite political uncertainty or external shocks.

Momentum is also building in more fragile, resource-rich states: Guinea (10.5%) is benefiting from large-scale mining investment, while South Sudan (22.4%) is rebounding on recovering oil production and exports.

Beyond the numbers, Africa’s momentum is increasingly underpinned by improving policy credibility, expanding regional trade, rising private investment in energy and services, and deeper integration into global value chains.

These trends take on added significance given Africa’s long-term demographics: by 2050, more than one in four people globally will be African, and the continent will have a larger working-age population than China and India combined.

Whether Africa’s current growth outperformance becomes a lasting feature of the global economy will depend on how effectively countries convert this scale into productivity gains, job creation, and sustained income growth.